It’s hard to believe tomorrow is election day. Early voting is over so if you haven’t voted, tomorrow is your last chance. And if you haven’t mailed in an absentee ballot, it’s way too late–drop it off at a polling place tomorrow instead.
There’s not much left to say about Trump. We all know he’s a sleazy, lying, degenerate grifter who cares only about himself. His response to Covid has been a catastrophic failure and his current downplaying and trivializing of the exploding spread is a heartless, unforgivable affront to the quarter-million dead. He was impeached for bribing a foreign power to smear his current presidential opponent. More of his corrupt circle of cronies have been indicted and/or gone to jail than any president since Nixon. His presidency has been a non-stop firehose of scandal, trashing sacred norms and wrecking cherished institutions. So many scandals, in fact, that the human mind cannot keep track of them all. He wants to be a dictator, and he wants to avoid prison for the financial and tax fraud that has come to light since his election. As Tom Friedman of the NY Times said, “The bad news is that if we have to endure four more years of Donald Trump, with him unrestrained by the need to be re-elected, our country will not be the America we grew up with, whose values, norms and institutions we had come to take for granted.”
We’re all exhausted and anxious. We want this political nightmare to end. But we have to be prepared for all of the possibilities. Biden might win in convincing fashion, and we might have a strong sense of the outcome tomorrow night. Or, we could end election day with Trump in the lead and millions of votes yet to be counted. It might take weeks to certify an outcome while an army of Trump lawyers tries to invalidate millions of votes. Nobody knows, and that’s the hard part. We all hate uncertainty.
The best election analysis I heard this weekend came from Nate Silver, director of renowned polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight. He said that, assuming Biden wins Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin (he has big consistent leads in all three), Trump needs to win Florida, Texas, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona AND North Carolina to win. If Trump loses any one of those six, OR if Biden flips a state like Ohio or Iowa, Trump can’t get to 270. Biden is currently polling ahead in five of the six (Texas is a tossup). In other words, it’s possible for Trump to win but he will need to “run the table” and overcome long odds. The polls will need to be significantly more wrong than they were in 2016, which seems unlikely. One thing we know for sure is that we are seeing record turnout in many states. Texas and Hawaii have already surpassed their 2016 turnout and Montana, Washington State, and North Carolina are already less than 5% away from their 2016 totals. And according to the US Elections Project, overall vote totals are expected to hit 65%, or 150-million votes, the highest level since 1908. Higher turnout generally favors Democrats–which is why Republicans are constantly trying to suppress votes and disenfranchise voters. So this seems like good news but we can’t take a single vote for granted.
There are still plenty of opportunities to pitch in and help local candidates, as well as Joe Biden.
There’s an online Get Out The Vote event this afternoon at 2pm with Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul to help support Karen Smythe for State Senator. Sign up here:
Rep Delgado also has events today:
You can also help make calls and texts with a variety of national groups like Indivisible:
Or with VoteSaveAmerica:
If we all pitch in and work together there’s a good chance we can remove Trump from power and get our nation back on a path toward progress. Many of us have been fighting this battle for three and a half years–or longer. We’ve put parts of our lives on hold because we care about this nation and recognize that Trump is a cancer on our body politic. This election is what we’ve been working toward, what all our effort has been aimed at influencing. It’s not over yet but we’re almost there.
Keep resisting Trump and keep working to “vote his ass out of office.”