Joe Biden and Donald Trump both spent the weekend crisscrossing the nation holding campaign events. Biden held drive-in events that required masks and distancing as he presented his thoughtful plans for healing America and dealing with the pandemic and its economic devastation. Trump held packed superspreader events featuring very few masks as he shrieked about Democrats who hate America (Ilhan Omar) and should be locked up (Hillary, Biden), lying about the spread of Covid (it’s “turning a corner”), and continuing to mock science and the wearing of masks. There couldn’t be a greater political contrast than between these two candidates. Biden is a rational, compassionate leader with thoughtful and detailed plans. Trump is an unhinged, aggrieved bore with no plans other than retribution and selfish enrichment. In short, it’s compassion versus desperation. No wonder Biden leads in the polls. But it’s truly astonishing that despite all we know about Trump–his former Chief of Staff John Kelly recently called Trump “the most flawed person” he’s ever met–he still has massive support from Republicans.
Here’s a bright spot. Barack Obama is getting more active in support of Joe Biden, readying himself to hit the campaign trail this week. He recently made a video aimed at motivating voters, and in it said of the presidential race, “it’s going to be close.” Biden has a solid lead in the national polls, but his lead is much narrower in the swing states. And even if he appears to win, Trump may not concede. Here’s a prediction/warning I first saw on Twitter on Saturday that summed up some likely scenarios:
- Biden wins by 1 or 2 states. Trump contests the election in every swing state and tries to invalidate the mail-in votes and/or the ballot counting procedures, looking to cheat his way to victory.
- Biden wins by 3 or 4 states. Trump refuses to concede and attacks the legitimacy of the election and the media, urging his cult to “protest” (perpetrate violence).
- Biden wins by 5 or 6 states. Trump refuses to concede and vows to run again, flooding his cult with conspiracy theories and continuing to hold hate-rallies. Or he flees to another country.
If Biden can’t win a decisive victory, our nation will have a dangerous mess to sort out and most of the levers of power will be controlled by the most corrupt president in our history.
It’s tragic, but a massive challenge Trump will face every day between now and November 3rd is the roaring pandemic, which is again picking up momentum in the mid-west. Cases are rising and the death toll will soon follow. As much as Trump lies and distorts and downplays the coronavirus, death is stalking our citizens and they know it. And most of the states with the fastest growth of infection are red states like the Dakotas, Nebraska and Wisconsin. The two core issues of the 2020 election are related. We must slow and control the pandemic to save our shattered economy, and ensure our citizens have access to comprehensive and affordable healthcare. Trump and the GOP are on the absolute wrong side of both issues. We have to hammer these home in the next two weeks, supporting both Biden’s election and Rep Delgado’s re-election.
The national GOP apparatus seems to have given up on NY-19, and the 3rd Quarter fundraising numbers prove it. Delgado out-raised his challenger by 19-to-1. Yes, you read that right. AD raised $1.27M while Van de Water raised $66k. But that isn’t a guarantee of victory. Trump supporters turn out to vote, and there are plenty in our district. Leaving anything to chance would be a big mistake. It’s a well documented fact that rosy predictions about the outcome of an election can ALTER THE OUTCOME OF AN ELECTION. For example, it’s quite possible that Hillary Clinton would have won if more people hadn’t believed her victory was assured or inevitable–and stayed home. When the margin of victory is slim, as it may be in many of the swing states, voter complacency can tilt the balance. Let’s hope Biden can win a decisive victory, and let’s view the polls as proof that a Biden victory is possible. But let’s assume that every single vote in every single state matters.
Keep resisting Trump and keep working to “vote his ass out of office.”