Yesterday NBC news issued a preliminary look at early voting in the midterms, and the results were highly disappointing for the resistance.  Republicans outnumbered Democrats by a wide margin in early vote tallies.  A few Republicans will surely vote for Democrats, and some of the regions where large numbers of Republicans voted early were safely red, but this was not the news we were looking for.

partyaffiliationearlyvote_NBC

The full article:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-voters/over-8-million-people-have-voted-early-outpacing-2016-nbc-n924281

Republicans have an advantage when it comes to the news.  If a voter believes the news is FAKE, as many conservatives do, they will disregard polls and vote whether their candidates are ahead or behind.  If a voter trusts the news, as many progressives do, they might stay home under these two circumstances:

  • Their candidates are ahead, so their votes aren’t needed.
  • Their candidates are behind, so their votes are futile.

Taking the news at face value can lead people to stay at home, and this may be EXACTLY why Clinton didn’t do better in 2016.  Voters who stayed home tended to be Democrats.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/registered-voters-who-stayed-home-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

The contest in NY19 will be extremely close.  Even in the most optimistic scenario, Delgado is only likely to win by a slim margin.  But he could lose big, as Teachout did two years ago.  Trump has done a great job of keeping his cult of followers enraged and fearful.  Will they turn out in our district?  We’ll find out in less than two weeks.  Conservative fears are mostly imagined (caravans, MS-13, Democrat mobs, Pelosi) while our fears are sadly all too real (repeal of ACA, destruction of social safety net, reversing Roe v Wade, widening inequality, corporate hegemony).  To make matters worse, Faso’s backers are running increasingly desperate and ugly ads attacking Delgado.  Personally, I think it makes sense to fight fire with fire.  Our message in the remaining days should be three-fold.

  1. Faso votes against women.
  2. Faso lied to our district about healthcare.
  3. Faso was at the center of a lobbying scandal.

There’s a lot at stake, but there is still time to take action and motivate voters to get out and vote, especially if they know that the Blue Wave might not even be a ripple, and it may never arrive unless they VOTE.  Let’s keep working to Fire Feckless Faso and elect Antonio Delgado.

Here are the GOTV events on this Faso Friday…

  • Canvass in HydePark – 4pm or 6pm
  • Phonebank in Oneonta – 5pm

Details here:

https://events.mobilizeamerica.io/delgadoforcongress/

 

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