With all the chaos and disruption created by Trump last week, it makes sense to wonder whether it was all theater.  Perhaps Trump was trying to distract from or defuse something that he and his people fear is about to happen.  At a DSCC event this weekend, Democratic Senator Mark Warner boasted to the crowd that they should “buckle up” in the months ahead because more revelations from the Mueller Investigation will be coming out, information that only Warner is privy to but is prohibited from detailing.

Insiders in the intelligence and law enforcement communities have been rumoring for months that what the public knows about the Mueller probe is just the tip of the iceberg.  If this is true, then it seems likely Mueller will need to disclose some of it soon as he is duty bound not to make moves or release information shortly before a national election.  Pundits speculate that he has until the beginning of September to announce new indictments or submit a recommendation to Congress, otherwise he will have to wait until late in November.  So the next two months are his window for action.

We know from past experience that Trump will always try to swamp unflattering news with his own concocted bullshit.  Mueller’s announcements on Manafort and others were always met with a Tweet-storm from Trump containing something vulgar or incendiary intended to soak up media attention from the real news.  So perhaps the family separations at the border were meant to inflame the libs just before something crucial was coming from Mueller.  It’s a cynical proposition, and it requires a level of premeditation and competence that Trump and his staff of third-raters has never remotely shown before, but it does fit a pattern.  So if any new disclosures do surface from Mueller soon, you will know what all of this recent chaos was aiming at.

One thing is certain.  Absent any earth-shattering revelations from Mueller, this November’s midterm election will be a referendum on the following question:

Do Trump’s vile acts of cruelty, along with his chilling authoritarian pronouncements, excite his base to get out and vote more or less than they horrify and enrage his opponents to get out and vote?

His advisers seem to believe that our anger and distress are ultimately what motivate his base to vote–he’s owning the libtards, so Trumpers will reward him by going to the polls!–and they are pinning their hopes on this theory. Given the national fury at the sight of toddlers in cages, the Democrats are as engaged and motivated as they have been since the election.  So by Trump & Co’s theory, his base must be as engaged and motivated as they have ever been.  But it really beggars the imagination.  Trump’s hard core will always support him, but they are not a monolith.  It only takes one percent of his supporters to leave him or stay home on election day to keep him from re-election in 2020, and in the midterms, the enthusiasm gap will be even greater.  Just look at all of the special elections that went the Democrats’ way in the past few months, plus all of the state legislative seats that have flipped from red to blue across the country.  Or the headlines in Iowa and Arkansas about the cratering price of soybeans.

Tomorrow is our big primary day, so please get out and vote for the contender you think has the best chance of beating Faso and representing the values of the citizens of NY-19.  Every vote counts, even in a primary.  Take the first official step toward Firing Feckless Faso and beginning the end of the Trump regime…

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