The numbers from the California primaries are coming into sharper focus, and the results look very good for Democrats. In 2014, the Democrats got their clock cleaned by the Republicans, who were energized by a president they disliked (Obama) and made big gains in the midterms. The tables now seem to have turned. Aram Fischer, an Indivisible activist in California, used turnout numbers from the California Secretary of State to tabulate the change in turnout from 2014 to 2018 and published the top six districts. The results are encouraging:
In all six cases, the Republican turnout was depressed while the Democrat turnout increased massively. The numbers bode well for California’s general election in November, and hopefully predict the general trend for the election nationally. Flipping the House will be hard, but it’s not a pipe dream.
Trump’s approval ratings fluctuate, but they have never left the “horrible” range and don’t appear likely to, and this will keep downward pressure on Republican turnout. More importantly, polling suggests that elected officials providing a check on Trump is a top priority for voters. By a two-to-one margin, voters are more likely to support a candidate who has opposed Trump most of the time, and more likely to support a candidate who promises to be a check on Trump.
Here’s a fascinating report by Greg Sargent in the Washington Post:
It’s easy to imagine shape-shifting John Faso suddenly telling voters that he has been against Trump on many issues, so we must be prepared to beat back the dishonest notion that Faso has been anything but a supporter and enabler of the most corrupt President in modern history.
And we must also encourage our Democratic nominee to run a two-track campaign. Track one will be opposition to the vile, unethical, unstable, incompetent liar in the White House, and track two will be advocacy of the priorities that we hold dear, like common sense gun control, comprehensive health insurance, higher taxes on billionaires, action on climate change, a clean Dream Act, access to women’s reproductive care, and protection for programs that help the most vulnerable, like SNAP and Medicare.
The California numbers demonstrate that success is possible. With a lot of hard work and smart strategy, we can send Faso back to the lobbying swamp and elect a Rep who cares more about the average citizen of our district than the billionaire outsiders who want to buy our Democracy. Let’s keep working hard to Fire Feckless Faso…